I'd like to (but I don't know if I really will) make a list of Long Bets (inspiration). Here's the deal: if I'm wrong in the future, I have to make reference to this post (and other appropriate ones) and say I was wrong. But if the other people are wrong... bwa ha ha!
What are some of the items that would be on this list?
+ I don't believe in Kurzweil's singularity (though I do believe in the progress of technology, some good examples cited by him here). I boil his argument down to: 'Once we get enough processing power, a miracle happens.'
A correlation is Kurzweil's Turing Test bet, which I'm a little more agnostic on, but I still lean away from AI (a la Jaron Lanier).
+ I don't believe that carbon and global warming is going to bring disaster. Rather, I believe that either 1. It won't go down like Gore et al. predict or 2. Human ingenuity will be able to obviate disaster (a la Tom Barnett).
+ I don't believe we'll ever encounter other intelligent life in the universe. Rather, I believe we've got ourselves an exceptional situation and that God made it that way. (Here I am compelled by Hugh Ross' arguments that Earth is one of a kind.)
Believe me, I know I could be wrong on these things. But I hope I'm right enough to go on the record. We'll see ;-)
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8 comments:
With you 110% on 2 and 3. Processing power? How about the combination of two human beings and a little love? Has a proven track record. ;~)
Consider this usage...
"Apparently the relevant unit in the last singularity was Western Europe; Britain was too small to support the industrial revolution by itself. From the May American Economic Review: "
My interpretation of singularity has been similar to yours... "then a miracle happens." But this implies a radical acceleration of economic growth. Hmm...
1, and 2 no comment. 3, I can't make up my mind. Theologically, if you fall anywhere in "the world (earth) will be judged" camp the possibility we bring it on ourselves is quite plausible. 4...Scripture is silent on the subject, is it not? although the mathematical probability for intelligent life is remote at best, I think it exists. Or rather, better said, I would like to think it exists.
I have a comment to make on the religious issue of whether there is intelligent life elsewhere. Scripture is not silent at all and clearly refers to extra-terrestrials who are created beings. For a Christian one question would be whether they are fallen and in need of redemption. Some of them we see in the Bible are apparently not fallen and some are. C.S. Lewis' wasn't embarrassed about conceding the possibility of extra-terrestrials and then thinking through the implications of that possibility. The day may come when his musings about this possibility become hugely important. Or it may not come. But the idea of a universe empty of intelligence except for ours and God's seems to me to be a stretch.
Paul: where in the world does Scripture say there are ETIs?!
and did you click through to look at any of the mathematical arguments for the uniqueness of Earth?
I discussed ETs and the Bible, in the context of xGW, previously on the blog.
http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2006/05/13/post-modern-christianity-post-modern-war.html
Sean, as I told you via direct email, I was referring to angels. I wasn't trying to be cute. I was avoiding using the word "angels" because it is so loaded with sentimentality and so embedded in the "religious sphere," as if there is this great wall between the created universe and the "religous sphere" or "heaven". The religious sphere and heaven have to be created places, as "our world" is a created place. Why, then, do we have to assume that there is not a reality that includes both or that both are not really one reality? I haven't looked at the tcaxp post Dan refers to, and I will.
yeah, sorry Paul, i totally missed the angels reference. maybe i was being dense that day. don't get me started on sentimental, 'coochie', cute angels. angels are powerful, like Gandalf! (i make my children repeat that back to me).
i totally agree with you that these domains, often assumed to be separate, can overlap. in fact, that's some of what Dan's post is about.
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