Tuesday, June 17

My long bets

I'd like to (but I don't know if I really will) make a list of Long Bets (inspiration). Here's the deal: if I'm wrong in the future, I have to make reference to this post (and other appropriate ones) and say I was wrong. But if the other people are wrong... bwa ha ha!

What are some of the items that would be on this list?

+ I don't believe in Kurzweil's singularity (though I do believe in the progress of technology, some good examples cited by him here). I boil his argument down to: 'Once we get enough processing power, a miracle happens.'

A correlation is Kurzweil's Turing Test bet, which I'm a little more agnostic on, but I still lean away from AI (a la Jaron Lanier).

+ I don't believe that carbon and global warming is going to bring disaster. Rather, I believe that either 1. It won't go down like Gore et al. predict or 2. Human ingenuity will be able to obviate disaster (a la Tom Barnett).

+ I don't believe we'll ever encounter other intelligent life in the universe. Rather, I believe we've got ourselves an exceptional situation and that God made it that way. (Here I am compelled by Hugh Ross' arguments that Earth is one of a kind.)

Believe me, I know I could be wrong on these things. But I hope I'm right enough to go on the record. We'll see ;-)
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