Steven's prologue to the war in Iraq. Salient points:

In the case of Iraq, the disinformation for most of the last year was valuable because it covered a period in which we had (I now think) decided to attack Iraq but did not yet have sufficient force in the region to defend against an Iraqi spoiling attack. There were also diplomatic reasons why it was important to not paint the writing on the wall

I hadn't even considered the possibility of a 'spoiling attack'. And there was diplomacy. But I've been convinced since november 8th that we're committed, barring something really extraordinary, almost miraculous. You don't spend the money to move all that stuff if you don't plan on using it, bottom line.

Interesting speculations about new technology, including ElectroMagnetic Pulse.